TEHRAN (Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says the Biden trip to the Saudi Arabia has probably weakened the willingness of MbS in Saudi Arabia to make a serious effort at rapprochement with Iran.
Pillar told Bazaar news agency that the more he thinks he has the backing of the United States, the more he will be inclined to take a hard line toward Iran.
Following is the text of the interview:
Bazaar: While it was said that the American policy regarding the Persian Gulf has changed due to the containment of China, we are witnessing the importance of the region’s oil after the war in Ukraine. Do you agree with this argument?
Pillar: Yes, at least in the sense of political importance. Much of the purpose of Biden's trip to Saudi Arabia was to be seen as trying to do something to reduce gasoline prices for American consumers.
Bazaar: Biden's trip to the region is an attempt to find a way to reduce oil prices with Saudi’s help. Will this happen?
Pillar: It is unlikely that Saudi oil production will rise enough to make any significant difference in oil prices. There are good reasons to doubt that the Saudis have the ability, much less the will, to rise much above their current production rate of 10.5 mpd for any sustained length of time. Oil prices are coming down, but because of reduction in demand from economic slowdowns in some countries, such as China.
Bazaar: The United States is trying to encourage Saudi Arabia to stage a coup against Russia by withdrawing from the OPEC+ agreement and subsequently increasing oil production to improve its price in Western countries. Is this happening?
Pillar: I don't think so. The Saudis seem to be placing importance on maintaining solidarity with Russia as oil producers. In the past they have engaged in a production war with Russia, but they do not seem to be inclined to do so again now.
Bazaar: What effect will Biden's trip to the region has on nuclear negotiations with Iran?
Pillar: I see no way in which the trip has helped. It may hurt the negotiations, especially if joint talk from Israel and the U.S. about the possible use of military force strengthens the position of those in Tehran arguing for a nuclear deterrent.
Bazaar: Will this trip affect the negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia?
Pillar: It has probably weakened the willingness of MbS in Saudi Arabia to make a serious effort at rapprochement with Iran. The more he thinks he has the backing of the United States, the more he will be inclined to take a hard line toward Iran.
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