TEHRAN(Bazaar) – Robert Y. Shapiro, professor of Columbia University says that the most important developments and issues of 2023 are the current Hamas/Israel war and the presence of "Donald Trump" in the 2024 presidential election and the possibility of his victory in this election.
Following is the full text of the Bazaar interview with Professor Shapiro:
Q: The year 2023 is coming to an end and the world has witnessed various developments in this year. In your opinion, what has been the most important development this year?
A: The most important developments and continuing issues have been the war in Ukraine, the current Hamas/Israeli war, and the continuing presence of Donald Trump in presidential politics and the possibility of him winning the presidency in 2024. Also the change in policies toward China by the US and Europe, that are posing problems for China as an economic and technological power, as its threat to Taiwan remains strong. The world is still struggling with inflation, stagnant economic growth, and other economic issues, and the threat of climate change is looming larger.
Q: In the field related to the economy, what development can be mentioned as a turning point this year?
A: The turning point for the US and Europe is inflation becoming more manageable and they have followed policies that are trying to isolate China and that will enable them to become less dependent on China regarding computer chips and manufacturing technology
Q: The war in Ukraine is still going on and there are whispers from the western countries to lead Ukraine to talk with Moscow. According to some reports, the West has come to believe that this war cannot lead to a victory for Ukraine. What is your assessment and will we see peace talks in 2024?
A: It is looking more like the west will push Ukraine toward some settlement with Russia since even if they maintain military and economic support for Ukraine, Ukraine may have difficulty keeping up with Russia's arms production.
But the Ukrainians have not wavered and if they can maintain manpower levels, it is possible they can outlast the Russians but that may take a very long time and it does not seem likely at this point.
Q: Despite serious tensions, America and China are trying to manage these tensions. The meeting of the officials of the two countries in this field has also focused on the same goal. Will this trend continue, or may an issue cause tensions to get out of control, like Taiwan?
A: US-China relations have improved to the extent that both sides are now talking to each other. China's weakened economy may be motivating it and they are not in a position to act militarily regarding Taiwan. They may have reason to want to wait to see if Trump will win the election and they can establish better relations with him as president--dealing with a more authoritarian president, who while opposing China economically, would be less favorable in his support for Taiwan compared to Biden.
Q: One of the important topics in 2023 was the Gaza war. How long do you think this war will last?
A: I think the Israelis will relentlessly try to wipe out Hamas's leadership and tunnel infrastructure and claim complete military victory. The question is whether that can be done in the next two weeks or into the New Year. I think it will last as long as it takes for the victory they seek. And they will go to war more broadly and relentlessly if they are attacked from Lebanon, Syria, or anywhere else -- they have national unity in this regard and the US appears ready to support them further should this happen.
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