TEHRAN (Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says the current international climate is not favorable for reviving the negotiations, mainly for reasons related to the wars in Ukraine (where Iran is supporting the Russian effort) and in Gaza, given how Hamas is commonly seen as part of an Iran-led “axis of resistance.”
“Even when 4+1 negotiations were active, the most important dialogue was between the U.S. and Iran,” Pillar told Bazaar News Agency.
Following is the full text of the interview.
Q: When Hossein Amirabdollahian visited Tokyo in August and met with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and then with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, he received a proposal from the Japanese government regarding nuclear negotiations. What is your assessment of this plan?
A: We simply do not know anything more about such a plan, beyond the Iranian foreign minister's comment. The official Japanese description of these discussions does not talk about a plan, but only about Japan's general expressions of concern about the state of the Iranian nuclear program and Japan's support for the JCPOA.
Q: Recently Ali Bagheri, Iran's nuclear negotiator, traveled to Tokyo. It seems that one of the subjects discussed by him was the Japan proposal. In August, Tokyo proposed a plan to resume and revive Iran's nuclear talks to Amir Abdollahian, and he also said that any plan from Japan that is in line with ‘Iran's interests’ would be considered positive. What is your assessment of this trip at this time?
A: Bagheri had numerous topics on his agenda, not just prospects for nuclear negotiations. Whether or not Japan has advanced anything that is worthy of being called a plan, there is likely to be interest on the part of the government of Iran in seeing whether Japan could play a more active role in diplomacy, in whatever form, related to Iran 's nuclear program. Japan has the advantage of being a major G-7 country, with credibility on nuclear issues, that is not a member of NATO and does not have some of the impediments related to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza that the U.S. and the Europeans do.
Q: It seems that this plan is to revive the 4+1 negotiations. In this case, what is your assessment of the success of this proposal?
A: The current international climate is not favorable for reviving the negotiations, mainly for reasons related to the wars in Ukraine (where Iran is supporting the Russian effort) and in Gaza, given how Hamas is commonly seen as part of an Iran-led "axis of resistance."
Q: Some believe that reviving the 4+1 negotiations is not desirable for Iran. On the other hand, they consider the bilateral negotiations between Iran and the United States to be fruitful. What is your assessment?
A: I don't think in practice there is much difference between these two frameworks for negotiation. Even when 4+1 negotiations were active, the most important dialogue was between the U.S. and Iran.
Q: When Japan's plan was presented in August, the spokesperson of the US State Department said: “I am not particularly aware of this initiative. I do not know what these statements refer to. As we have said before, diplomacy is the best way to ensure that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon. There has been no change in this position.” Despite this comment, it does not seem that this plan is without coordination with America. What is your assessment?
A: Japan could be expected to coordinate with the United States regarding any specific plan on this topic. I think the State Department response should increase skepticism that Japan had advanced anything specific enough to be called a "plan."
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