TEHRAN (Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says the major oil producing countries seem determined to keep production at levels that will maintain prices about where they are now.
Pillar told Bazaar news agency that “The Federal Reserve certainly is not finished raising interest rates, and probably will bring short-term rates up to about 4%.”
Following is the text of the interview:
Q: Poll results indicate a decrease in Biden's popularity. What are the reasons for his decline in popularity?
A: Actually, over the past month or so Biden's poll numbers have improved. They are still net negative, but the negative margin is about as little as it has been for most of his presidency. He got a boost from some legislative victories, and gasoline prices have dropped significantly from the highs they reached in early summer. As for overall reasons for people rating him negatively, there always will be a significant share of the population that will say they don't like him no matter what he does, and no matter how much policy success he has. The core of that part of the population are those who, egged on by Trump, have been led to believe that Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election. As for more traditional reasons for a negative opinion, probably inflation has been the biggest reason.
Q: What role will the US congressional elections play in Biden's future? If the Democratic Party loses in this election, is it possible to lose in future presidential elections?
A: The party that holds the presidency usually loses seats in the midterm congressional election, and this does not say much about how that party will fare in the next presidential election. The Democrats lost big in the 1994 election, and Clinton was elected to a second term in 1996. The Democrats lost seats in the 2010 election, and Obama was re-elected in 2012.
Q: Due to the increasing trend of inflation in America, the Federal Reserve has increased the interest rate to curb it. This would mean a recession in the US economy. What are the effects of this issue in the medium and long term for America?
A: Most indicators of inflation have eased some over the past couple of months. There was no increase at all in the consumer price index for July. The Federal Reserve certainly is not finished raising interest rates, and probably will bring short-term rates up to about 4%. The Fed believes it can curb inflation without a recession. Maybe it can, maybe it can't, but any recession is likely to be mild and have few longer term effects.
Q: According to the current trend, what is your prediction of oil and gas prices this fall and winter?
A: If I could give a good answer to that, I would be investing in oil and gas futures and make some money. The major oil producing countries seem determined to keep production at levels that will maintain prices about where they are now.
Q: What is the effect of lack of energy in winter in the process of war between Russia and Ukraine? Is it possible for Europe to give concessions to Russia?
A: The question of European dependence on Russian gas continues to be a mostly unanswered one looking ahead to the winter. It is questionable whether there will continue to be much appetite in European populations for the sort of sanctions that affect their own energy supplies.
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