TEHRAN (Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says “I have become more pessimistic since the Russians have introduced their ploy of trying to get some kind of exemption from sanctions.”
He adds that “Iran might be reluctant to move ahead without the possibility of direct support from Russia.”
Following is the text of the interview:
Bazaar: Following the Russian move to guarantee the US, the Vienna talks have been shrouded in ambiguity. What is your assessment of the future of the negotiation?
Pillar: I have become more pessimistic since the Russians have introduced their ploy of trying to get some kind of exemption from sanctions. It still is unclear how far the Russians want to go with this. Whereas a few days ago it looked like the negotiations could conclude successfully in a matter of a few days, now that does not look like the case.
Bazaar: The Wall Street Journal quoted a senior US government official as saying that Washington opposed Russia's request for an exemption from sanctions and gave Moscow a week to withdraw the request. Do you think Russia is following this request?
Pillar: I don't think Russia will withdraw this request. What is uncertain is how they will choose to interpret it.
Bazaar: According to the US official, if the Kremlin does not back down from its demand for the waiver of sanctions to implement the JCPOA, the United States will seek an agreement to exclude Russia from the JCPOA. Is this possible?
Pillar: It is possible, but the question is whether Iran would agree to such an arrangement. Iran might be reluctant to move ahead without the possibility of direct support from Russia.
Bazaar: According to some reports, China has not reacted negatively to an alternative to the removal of Russia from nuclear talks with Iran. Will China accept negotiation without Russia?
Pillar: China's position is indeed important, and probably Iran is waiting to see what China will decide to do. I think that given the way China is currently trying to balance its relations with Russia, it probably would oppose signing on to a new nuclear deal that excludes Russia.
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