TEHRAN (Bazaar) –Nader Entessar, Professor Emeritus of Political Science from university of South Alabama says that Grossi's task is to keep Iran's nuclear file open for a very long time, most likely in perpetuity by refusing to close the PMD case.
“This is the straw that may break the proverbial camel's back, and Iran should remain vigilant and not fall into the West's, and Grossi's, trap,” Entessar told Bazaar.
Following is the full text of the Bazaar interview with Professor Entessar:
Bazaar: While on Wednesday, news of a stalemate in the Vienna talks was broadcast, on Thursday, there was news of the end of the talks. What was the reason for the negative news on Wednesday?
Entessar: We have to remember that the battle over the fate of the JCPOA is being fought on several fields. The public relations battle that is being waged by the West is one such important field. This is an area where the Wet has a decisive advantage over Iran where it can manipulate the establishment media to covey its conflicting messages and influence public opinion. To quote the late Canadian communication theorist Marshall McLuhan, the "medium is the message," and McLuhan's oft-quoted phrase is spot-on in understanding the West's media manipulation or domination in framing the current Vienna negotiations with Iran. We need to have a broad and contextual perspective and not fall prey to media vicissitude.
Bazaar: IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, will travel to Iran on Saturday. It seems that the fate of the JCPOA is tied to this trip. What is the significance of this trip?
Entessar: It appears that the West has once again revived the issue of the "possible military dimensions" or (PMD) of Iran's nuclear program as a way to maintain its permanent lever over Iran in a possible nuclear deal. In other words, the West's intention is to keep its sword of Damocles over Iran's head in perpetuity although the PMD issue had already been addressed and shelved when the original JCPOA was signed in 2015. Rafael Grossi's trip to Iran is designed to gauge how this goal can be achieved.
Bazaar: According to the news broadcast by some reporters from Vienna, the text of the final agreement has been written and the only remaining issue is how the safeguard agreement between Iran and the IAEA will be. Accordingly, Iran has demanded the closure of the PMD case. However, the IAEA does not want to close it, and according to new documents, it will open the case, like the documents that Netanyahu provided to the IAEA. How will this go?
Entessar: As I stated in my answer to the previous question, Grossi's task is to keep Iran's nuclear file open for a very long time, most likely in perpetuity by refusing to close the PMD case. This is the straw that may break the proverbial camel's back, and Iran should remain vigilant and not fall into the West's, and Grossi's, trap.
Bazaar: If the PMD case is not closed, the IAEA may refer Iran’s nuclear file to the Board of Governors and the UN Security Council following possible new documents. Do you think the agency will keep that leverage?
Entessar: The IAEA will always have that leverage. If Iran agrees to a new set of PMD concessions, the IAEA will come back at a later time with a new set of demands. What the West (through the IAEA) is doing is the first step in an open-ended multi-act play to make sure that sanctions on Iran will never be removed effectively.
Bazaar: If the agreement with Iran is announced, what effects will it have on energy prices? Prices that have risen sharply in the wake of the Ukraine crisis and put the Western economy at risk?
Entessar: If an agreement with Iran is announced, it will have a positive psychological effect on the global energy markets and will lead to a lower global oil price. However, under the best of circumstances, the actual impact of Iran's oil shipments will take some time. Also, it is not clear how much Iranian oil will enter the global energy market, or if it can compensate for the loss of Russia's energy shipments to Europe.
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