TEHRAN(Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says the Biden administration has no way of making guarantees of what would happen under a future president.
Following is the text of the interview with Professor Paul Pillar:
Bazaar: Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs said Wednesday that the Vienna talks with the aim of removal of the US sanctions will start on November 29. What is your assessment of this?
Pillar: It is encouraging that after a too-long hiatus, talks will resume. But the parties do not seem to have reduced the gap between their positions during the time away from the conference table.
Bazaar: President Ebrahim Raeisi said that "As Iran has announced before, we will not leave the negotiating table," adding that Iran wants result-oriented negotiations to remove oppressive US sanctions. Do you think that the result that Iran is seeking will be achieved in the negotiations?
Pillar: I would estimate only a slightly better than even chance that an agreement will be reached--better than even because each of the parties still has good reasons to want to reach agreement.
Bazaar: Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia Permanent Representative for Vienna-based International Organizations said that all participants in the negotiations for the resumption of the implementation of the JCPOA call for a result-oriented dialogue. He told cautiously optimistic about the outlook for the next round of Vienna talks. His words seem to be a response to Ebrahim Raisi. What is your assessment of Russia's recent position? Ulyanov has been sharply critical of Iran for the delay in the Vienna talks in recent months.
Pillar: Russia has consistently supported the JCPOA in a fairly responsible way. It has been critical of both the U.S. and of Iran at the times when each was most deserving of criticism--when the U.S. under a previous administration reneged on the agreement, and when Iran under its current administration has been too slow to return to the conference table.
Bazaar: Republicans in U.S. Congress announced that as soon as the Republican Party regains a majority in Congress, it will immediately rescind any agreement between the Biden administration and the Islamic Republic of Iran. According to the Washington Free Beacon, the Republican MPs said their clear message to the Islamic Republic of Iran was: “Joe Biden does not have the authority to promise the permanent lifting of sanctions of Iran.” Based on this, how does the Biden government want to guarantee the stability of the JCPOA?
Pillar: The Biden administration has no way of making guarantees of what would happen under a future president. But a return to compliance with the JCPOA soon would yield at least three more years of having the agreement in force. This would strengthen the record of the agreement's value, and even three years of sanctions relief would be important to Iran.
Bazaar: Given the recent developments, what is your prediction for the future of the JCPOA?
Pillar: Much will depend on the outcome of future U.S. elections. If a Republican president is elected in 2024, the U.S. probably would renege again on the JCPOA.
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