TEHRAN(Bazaar) - Tariq Rauf, the Director of SIPRI’s Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-proliferation Program, says Zarif's proposal is a good one and offers a way out of the stalemate with the Biden administration insisting that Iran must first return fully to the JCPOA and reverse all six of its nuclear steps since May-June 2019, while Iran insists that all Trump sanctions must first be reversed.
Following is the full text of the exclusive interview of Bazaar with Tariq Rauf.
Bazaar: French President Emmanuel Macron has recently called for Saudi Arabia to be involved in nuclear talks with Iran. What is the reason for this position?
Rauf: President Macron likely is interested in arms/weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, as it seems likely that the Biden administration will not be as forthcoming towards Saudi Arabia as was President Trump. There is no reason or logic for Saudi Arabia, or for that matter any other Middle east country, to be at the table with Iran and the EU/E-3/+3 (EU/France, Germany, UK/China, Russia, US). The JCPOA signatories should revive the agreement, FM Zarif's proposal for the EU/E-3 to synchronize or facilitate US/Iran return to JCPOA is quite logical. Time is running out, hence the EU/E-3 need to become active.
Bazaar: The spokesman of the European Union has stated that the issue of Macron is his personal opinion and not the position of the European Union. What is the reason for the EU's open opposition to Macron?
Rauf: I think because President Macron did not consult in advance with the EU, and perhaps also because in the past President Macron supported the Trump administration's proposals for putting Iran's ballistic missile programme and "regional activities" on the negotiating table as part of JCPOA+ negotiations. The position of the EU/E-3 remains to stay with the original JCPOA as signed on 14 July 2015.
Bazaar: While US Secretary of State Tony Blinken believes that the JCPOA is linked to Iran's missile and regional issues, Robert Malley, President Joe Biden's Special Representative for Iran, believes that the nuclear deal must first be concluded, and then raised other issues. He even said that the issue of Iran's missiles may not be resolved in the first Biden period, and believes that the issue of Iran's missiles is related to the balance of power in the region, which requires a regional solution. What is your assessment of these two positions, and which person in Biden's government is stronger?
Rauf: The new US Secretary of State Tony Blinken comes from the Hilary Clinton team, which was opposed to negotiations with Iran and was sympathetic to Israel's views on Middle East and Iran matters. Robert Malley brings longer Middle East experience than Tony Blinken and his views and position are realistic and pragmatic based on his knowledge of the region. The JCPOA should be revived and implemented. Separately, the matter of ballistic missile capabilities and nuclear programmes in the Middle East region should be taken up in the mechanism of the UN Secretary-General's conference on the Middle East nuclear and weapon-of-mass-destruction free zone, decided in 2018 by the General Assembly -- the first conference was held in November 2019, the second scheduled for November 2020 was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this UN conference framework, Israel's nuclear and missile capabilities, along with those of Iran and Saudi Arabia, should be discussed.
Bazaar: Iran foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in his recent remarks has called for European mediation for the simultaneous implementation of the JCPOA by Iran and the United States. This solution seems to be operational. What is your assessment?
Rauf: FM Zarif's proposal is a good one and offers a way out of the stalemate with the Biden administration insisting that Iran must first return fully to the JCPOA and reverse all six of its nuclear steps since May-June 2019, while Iran insists that all Trump sanctions must first be reversed. However, the EU/E-3 are weak and need to stand up to the Biden administration which too is weak domestrically despite controlling the Senate and House of Representatives. Though the Majlis has mandated that by 21 February 2021, if the US does not return to the JCPOA then Iran should cease implementation of its Additional Protocol and ask IAEA inspector to leave Iran >> it would be a mistake for Iran to stop implementation of the additional protocol and to ask IAEA inspectors to leave. It is in Iran's own interest to continue with IAEA inspections, cooperate fully with IAEA inspectors, fully implement its safeguards agreement and additional protocol. Stopping this would only damage Iran and lose international support. Also, Iran should quickly resolve the matter of compensation for the accidental shoot down by the IRGC of the Ukrainian passenger plane, in which most of the passengers were of Iranian origin though with Canadian dual-citizenship.
Bazaar: Tony Blinken recently announced that if Iran continues to reduce its commitments, it will be able to build an atomic bomb in a few weeks. What is the reason for this comment?
Rauf: FM Zarif's proposal is a good one and offers a way out of the stalemate with the Biden administration insisting that Iran must first return fully to the JCPOA and reverse all six of its nuclear steps since May-June 2019, while Iran insists that all Trump sanctions must first be reversed. However, the EU/E-3 are weak and need to stand up to the Biden administration which too is weak domestrically despite controlling the Senate and House of Representatives. Though the Majlis has mandated that by 21 February 2021, if the US does not return to the JCPOA then Iran should cease implementation of its Additional Protocol and ask IAEA inspector to leave Iran >> it would be a mistake for Iran to stop implementation of the additional protocol and to ask IAEA inspectors to leave. It is in Iran's own interest to continue with IAEA inspections, cooperate fully with IAEA inspectors, fully implement its safeguards agreement and additional protocol. Stopping this would only damage Iran and lose international support. Also, Iran should quickly resolve the matter of compensation for the accidental shoot down by the IRGC of the Ukrainian passenger plane, in which most of the passengers were of Iranian origin though with Canadian dual-citizenship.
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