TEHRAN(Bazaar) –Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, tells that
She says: A temporary agreement is the most possible way to revive the JCPOA, Biden does not want to appear weak on Iran.
Following is the text of the interview:
*Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian announced during his recent trip to Oman that he had received plans to revive the JCPOA. On the other hand, the Sultan of Oman is scheduled to visit Iran. It seems that the Sultan of Oman's visit to Iran can pave the way for beginning the nuclear talks. What is your assessment?
Certainly, Oman has long played the role of intermediary between Iran and the US on many issues, including the signing of the JCPOA and afterwards. So, it is conceivable that the Sultan might try to perform this role again. However, there has been no indications in the American press or in statements of its officials that would indicate revival of the talks on this issue in near future. The perimeters of a potential interim agreement. also remain vague and sketchy.
*The details of the plan that Oman informed Amir-Abdollahian will not be published. But before that, it was announced that the US wants an interim agreement, which Iran rejected. It seems that Muscat's plan is related to this proposal. What is your assessment?
An interim agreement at best would be a band aid for Iran's problems. The US most likely would demand that Iran sharply reduce the level of its uranium enrichment and possibly close some centrifuges. Yet, the level of sanctions relief for Iran is unlikely to be significant. Also, the likelihood that Iran could gain access to substantial portions of its frozen assets is limited.
*It was recently announced that European countries had a meeting with some non-permanent members of the UN Security Council in order to investigate the activation of the snapback mechanism against Iran. Do you think this is more of a promotional issue or not?
Such actions are certainly aimed at pressuring Iran. However, the risk that the West might resort to snapback mechanisms is also real and Iran should take it seriously.
*Some sanctions related to Iran's missile and drone program (Under sunset clauses) will be lifted this October. To what extent can this encourage the other side of the JCPOA to start talks?
I am not confident that these limitations would be lifted in October, unless, in the meanwhile, some progress happens in Iran-US relations and tensions are reduced. The same applies to European states. If needed, they could find ways of extending these limitations. Therefore, Iran should not count on either the removal of such limitations or their positive impact on the JCPOA's revival.
*Based on recent developments, to what extent do you consider the beginning of talks probable?
Political atmosphere regarding Iran in the US not only has not improved, but it has deteriorated. In particular, the hardline Republicans are trying to render sanctions on Iran permanent and also prevent President Biden from adopting a flexible approach towards Iran and the JCPOA. With presidential elections in a little over a year, I doubt that Biden would want to appear weak on Iran. There is also pressure from Israel and its supporters. Although Biden's relationship with Netanyahu is strained, Republicans in Congress, including the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, want to invite Netanyahu to visit the US and speak at the Congress.
In my view, to break the current stalemate in its overall foreign policy, including the fate of the JCPOA, Iran needs to take bold actions and set a fundamentally new direction for its foreign relations. But judging by what appears in Iranian media and by statements made by its politicians, prospects for such bold reforms are not encouraging.
نظر شما