TEHRAN (Bazaar) –Nader Entessar, Professor Emeritus of Political Science from university of South Alabama says that the United States cannot exclude Russia from the JCPOA.
“No member of 4+1 can exclude another member from the original JCPOA unless a member voluntarily withdraws from the agreement, as the U.S. did in 2018,” Entessar told Bazaar.
Following is the full text of the Bazaar interview with Professor Entessar:
Bazaar: Following the Russian move to guarantee the US, the Vienna talks have been shrouded in ambiguity. What is your assessment of the future of the negotiation?
Entessar: Even before the latest Russian demands were interjected into the negotiating process in Vienna, the future of the talks faced uncertainty because the two sides, namely Iran and the U.S., were still far apart about bridging the gap on fundamental key demands of each other. That is why the future of Vienna negotiations is shrouded in uncertainty.
Bazaar: The Wall Street Journal quoted a senior US government official as saying that Washington opposed Russia's request for an exemption from sanctions and gave Moscow a week to withdraw the request. Do you think Russia is following this request?
Entessar: I am not sure if the Wall Street Journal story is accurate or not. I am generally suspicious of media reports that attribute statements to “unnamed” government officials. But if the report is true, then it is unlikely that Russia will comply with America's ultimatum.
Bazaar: According to the US official, if the Kremlin does not back down from its demand for the waiver of sanctions to implement the JCPOA, the United States will seek an agreement to exclude Russia from the JCPOA. Is this possible?
Entessar: No, the United States cannot exclude Russia from the JCPOA. First of all, Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA. Therefore, the U.S. is not a member of the JCPOA at this time. Washington must first rejoin the agreement and implement its obligations under the nuclear deal before it can make such a demand. Secondly, there is no provision in the original JCPOA that will allow one signatory in good standing to exclude another member from the agreement.
Bazaar: According to some reports, China has not reacted negatively to an alternative to the removal of Russia from nuclear talks with Iran. Will China accept negotiation without Russia?
Entessar: As I stated in my previous answer, no member of 4+1 can exclude another member from the original JCPOA unless a member voluntarily withdraws from the agreement, as the U.S. did in 2018. If parties to the Vienna talks decide to exclude Russia, then the new round of talks will have to take place under a new umbrella and not under the JCPOA framework. This may require the remaining parties to the Vienna talks to draft a new negotiating framework and call it JCPOA-Plus or something like that and start the ballgame from zero. Iran has already stated that it will not renegotiate the JCPOA and is not interested in drafting a new agreement.
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