TEHRAN(Bazaar) – Professor Frank N. von Hippel, former assistant director for national security in the White House Office of Science and Technology, says Netanyahu needs to know that, if he starts a war with Iran, the US will not necessarily join in offensive actions against Iran.
Following is the text of the Bazaar interview with Professor Frank N. von Hippel.
Bazaar:The Vienna talks will resume on Friday with signs of a possible agreement by the end of May. However, some obstacles to removing the names of Iranian individuals and entities from the sanctions list may delay it until mid-June. Do you think the talks will be completed by the end of May?
Hippel: I hope the talks will be completed by the end of May. But the decisions to try to sort out the many hundreds of sanctions individually, Iran’s requirement for verification that they have been indeed been lifted and Iran’s decision to mirror the US position by treating its departures from compliance individually rather than collectively have made the negotiations much more complicated.
Bazaar: Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, has said that talks on reviving the JCPOA in Vienna are in a “vague situation”. Meanwhile, other negotiating teams are optimistic about these negotiations. What is the reason for this contradiction?
Hippel: We have a saying: some people see a glass as half full and others see it as half empty. So some negotiators see how much progress has been made and some how much remains to be agreed.
Bazaar: It can be inferred from the positions of US officials that they pretend to be in no hurry to reach a speedy agreement. Meanwhile, Iran insists on speeding up to reach an agreement. If you agree with the argument made about the US position, what is the reason for this?
Hippel: I don’t know that the problem is entirely on the US side. Certainly, the US negotiators have to deal with many skeptics in the US, including in the Congress – people who think that the Obama Administration did not get enough in the JCPOA and want a longer agreement and agreements to deal with regional conflicts and ballistic missiles as. I believe there are also factions within Iran’s government that are unenthusiastic about the JCPOA.
Bazaar: The United States Department of State announced in a statement that a delegation of negotiators, including US political and security officials and experts, will begin its visit to four Arab countries from May 1, 2021. According to the statement, the trip to the four Arab countries of the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, with the aim of discussing some regional issues, will last until May 7 (one week). It seems that the Biden government is trying to reassure the countries in the region about the JCPOA. What is your assessment?
Hippel: The UAE and Saudi Arabia must be worried about President Biden’s decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan and a reduced US engagement in the Middle East. The US delegation will probably reassure them that, while the US is not interested in taking offensive actions against Iran, it will still provide support if they are attacked by Iran. I imagine that the visits in Egypt and Jordan are less related to Iran or the JCPOA.
Bazaar: Israel has stated that, regardless of the JCPOA agreement, Israel recognizes the right to defend itself against Iran. This is an issue that was also emphasized by the United States during the recent visit of the US Secretary of Defense to Israel. Doesn't this mean that the United States will leave Israel open to possible action against Iran? Will this not harm the possible agreement between Iran and the United States on nuclear issues?
Hippel: The US cannot control what Israel’s secret services do – for example the sabotage of Natanz in the middle of the JCPOA negotiations. But Netanyahu needs to know that, if he starts a war with Iran, the US will not necessarily join in offensive actions against Iran.
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