TEHRAN (Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says not expect an attempt to immediately resume nuclear negotiations with Iran.
“Burrell's comments are an effort to keep the subject on the international agenda even if substantive negotiations do not resume any time soon,” Pillar told Bazaar News Agency.
Following is the full text of the interview.
Q: In the midst of the Gaza war, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State announced that withdrawing from the JCPOA was a mistake because it had resolved one of the security issues with Iran. What is your assessment of his words at this time?
A: Secretary Blinken was simply speaking the truth; the US withdrawal from the JCPOA clearly was a big mistake, given what followed that withdrawal in terms of the acceleration of the Iranian nuclear program, as well as other Iranian conduct and the direction of politics in Tehran.
Q: Josep Burrell, the head of foreign policy of the European Union, also announced after the Gaza war, said “The time for negotiations to revive the JCPOA is coming to an end and it is important to resume these negotiations. I understand how important these negotiations are for the region, especially Saudi Arabia.” How do you evaluate his words? Does it mean an attempt to immediately resume negotiations?
A: I do not expect an attempt to immediately resume negotiations. The Europeans surely realize that the effects of the Gaza war, especially on the political climate in the United States, do not provide a favorable environment for resumption. But the Europeans do not want the issue to simply be bypassed or dropped entirely. Burrell's comments are an effort to keep the subject on the international agenda even if substantive negotiations do not resume any time soon.
Q: Burrell also said “Although the countries of the region and Saudi Arabia are not directly at the negotiating table, their concerns will be taken into consideration.” It seems that this is a new issue. Before this, the Arab countries demanded direct participation in the negotiations, which was met with opposition. Has something new happened? Doesn't this make the negotiation process more difficult?
A: I do not believe anything new happened. Direct participation by Arab countries in any new negotiations about the Iranian program is not on the table. Burrell realizes that such participation would greatly complicate any new negotiations and would essentially give a veto to those countries. Arab "participation" will be limited to separate consultations. The only thing that would change this picture, and is still unlikely, would be a major revision of the scope of negotiations so that they would no longer be centered exclusively on Iran but instead would be looking more broadly at nuclear activities in the Middle East.
Q: After the Gaza war, the spokesperson of the Iranian Foreign Ministry also said “The subject of the negotiations is open within the defined framework and within the framework of the Sultan of Oman's initiative. Naturally, the situation and issue of Palestine, which has displaced regional and international priorities, can overshadow some issues or create priority and delay.” What is your assessment of these words?
A: It is an expression of continued official Iranian interest in a deal that would provide sanctions relief, coupled with a realization that the Gaza War does not provide a good environment for resumption of negotiations--again, especially because of the political climate in the United States.
Q: According to the words of the officials of both sides of the JCPOA, is it possible to start negotiations in the next few months?
A: It is possible but unlikely. In the near term, there would be strong political attacks in the United States against any move by the Biden administration to resume diplomacy with Iran, given Iran's role as a backer of Hamas. Even if the emotions about Israel and Gaza subside after a couple of months, this would be getting farther into the 2024 election campaign season, when Biden would, in the interests of his re-election bid, still be hesitant to take political risks that a re-opening of negotiations with Iran would entail.
نظر شما