TEHRAN(Bazaar) –Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, tells that the war in Gaza stops the process of normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
She adds that Riyadh would not risk establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. However, the long-standing secret cooperation will continue.
Following is the text of the interview:
Q: During the war between Hamas and Israel, some sources in America and their affiliated media reported that Iranian money was blocked in Qatar again, which was later denied. Do you think there was a message hidden in this news?
A: Even before the start of the Hamas-Israel conflict, there were voices in the US critical of the deal between Iran and the US which freed frozen Iranian funds in exchange for the release of several US citizens imprisoned by Iran. Given the connections between Hamas and Iran, the refreezing of funds could be interpreted as putting Iran on notice against helping Hamas.
Q: How likely is it that America will use these funds as leverage against Iran in the future? If so, what will be the harm to America?
A: Whenever necessary, Washington will use whatever levers, financial, political, and military that it has against Iran. The use of financial pressure is the least dangerous of these levers. Except for making Iran even more distrustful of the US and thus making future understandings more difficult the use of these financial assets as a means of pressure on Tehran will not incur much harm to Washington.
Q: What is the impact of this war on the future of Iran's nuclear negotiations?
A: Given the connections made between Hamas actions and Iran's support for the Palestinians, governments in Washington would become even more fearful of making any deals with Iran. Israel, meanwhile, will increase its pressures on the US to adopt a harsh policy vis a vis Iran and even pursue with more vigor a strategy of regime change. In short, the Hamas-Israeli hostilities will put the nuclear negotiations on hold indefinitely. There is no way now that Washington would be able to lift sanctions on Iran even if it wanted to.
Q: What effects will this war have on the future of Iran and Saudi Arabia relations?
A: It is hard to predict how Riyadh will react to this conflict. One possibility is that Saudi Arabia will try to shore up relations with Tehran so as to protect itself from the attacks of pro-Iran elements in the region, such as the Houtis. On the other hand, it could decide that Tehran is still a radical state and thus stop the process of reconciliation. However, I believe that at least in the short term the war will not much affect Saudi-Iran relations. So far progress of these relations has been limited and I believe it will remain so.
Q: What is the effect of the war between Hamas and Israel on the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel?
A: I believe the process of normalization with Israel, too, will be on hold. Certainly, Riyadh would not risk establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. However, the long-standing secret cooperation will continue.
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