TEHRAN (Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says I do not believe that the Iran nuclear issue will be a major focus for President Biden between now and the U.S. election.
“Biden realizes that no matter the terms of any new agreement, the Republicans will attack it and try to make it a campaign issue,” Pillar told Bazaar News Agency.
Following is the full text of the interview.
Q: Iran and America reached an agreement regarding the exchange of prisoners and 5 American prisoners were released, and in exchange for that, the seized money of Iran in South Korea will be released and transferred to Qatar. What is your assessment of this agreement?
A: The agreement is most welcome. It will free innocent Americans who never should have been imprisoned in the first place, and it will free some Iranian funds for purchases of food and medicine for innocent Iranians.
Q: Robert Malley, former US Special Envoy for Iran, who was one of the main factors of this agreement, has announced this agreement is the first step. What does this word mean?
A: I believe Malley was referring to the fact that the agreement has not yet been fully implemented, and that although the American prisoners have been moved out of prison, they are still under a form of house arrest and are not yet free.
Q: Robert Malley was known as a person who wanted an agreement in all fields with Iran. Will the talks between Iran and the United States continue in other areas or will it remain only in this matter with regard to the American presidential election?
A: Removing the prisoner issue can only help the atmosphere for negotiations on other topics. But although there may be some sort of talks, at least indirectly, I believe both sides are wary of trying to reach any agreement before the U.S. election next year.
Q: The Biden administration can present the release of prisoners as a winning card in the election. Can his government focus on the nuclear issue now?
A: As suggested in my previous answer, I do not believe that the Iran nuclear issue will be a major focus for President Biden between now and the U.S. election. Biden realizes that no matter the terms of any new agreement, the Republicans will attack it and try to make it a campaign issue.
Q: The United States has reached an agreement with Iran regarding prisoners, while it has increased its military forces in the Persian Gulf, and there is a fear that the tension in the Persian Gulf will enter a dangerous phase. Do you think that the prisoners' agreement will help reduce the tension in the Persian Gulf between Iran and US?
A: The prisoner agreement reduces tension at least some, but as I have recently written (The new 'tanker war' and US military escalation in the Persian Gulf - Responsible Statecraft), the U.S. military deployments tend to increase tension.
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