TEHRAN (Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says In Grossi's remarks to the press, he tried to put a positive spin on the results of his trip, but the specific progress he was able to cite was fairly small--the reinstallation of cameras and the increase of monitoring at Fordo.
“I think the trip kept tensions from rising further, but the trip does not represent a breakthrough,” Pillar told.
Following is the full text of the interview:
Q: Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, visited Iran. What is your assessment of this trip?
A: In Grossi's remarks to the press, he tried to put a positive spin on the results of his trip, but the specific progress he was able to cite was fairly small--the reinstallation of cameras and the increase of monitoring at Fordo. I think the trip kept tensions from rising further, but the trip does not represent a breakthrough.
Q: Some believe that Grossi was able to take a good step with Iran on this trip regarding the issue of connecting two centrifuge cascades and the issue of 84% enrichment. Based on this, the surveillance in Fordo will increase by 50% and the cameras that were shut down will start working again. Based on this, it seems that Iran had good cooperation with the agency in this regard. What is your assessment?
A: It is partial cooperation on the part of Iran. Increasing monitoring is important, but the IAEA evidently still has not received satisfactory answers to its questions about uranium found at undeclared sites.
Q: With Grossi's positive comment, it seems that the Board of Governors of the IAEA will not issue a punitive declaration against Iran in its upcoming meeting. What is your assessment?
A: I do not believe there will be any punitive declaration agreed to at the next meeting. Such a declaration would indeed seem inconsistent with the tone of Grossi's remarks.
Q: Regarding 84% enrichment, according to Iran's explanation that the final product of enriched uranium is less than 60%, Grossi has not expressed any particular concern. What is your assessment and will the Board of Governors have a more serious reaction than Grossi?
A: It is true that the quantities involved that went over 60% evidently are very small, and in that respect, there is not a reason for greatly increased concern. There probably will be expressions of concern by some participants at the Board of Governors meeting, even if there is not any new formal declaration by the board itself.
Q: Perhaps it did not seem that Iran would increase its cooperation with the Agency at this level and perhaps provide a suitable ground for the revival of the JCPOA. What is your assessment?
A: There remains the problem of Iran linking negotiations on a revived JCPOA to its insistence on the IAEA closing the books on its investigations of past Iranian activity--not just the possible military dimensions that were discussed previously, but also the questions about uranium at undeclared sites. The other parties to the JCPOA say, with good reason, that there is no basis for that linkage and that they cannot and will not press the IAEA to back off from pursuing its unanswered questions about past activity. Until that problem gets resolved, I don't see that anything that has been happening on the Iran-IAEA front, including Grossi's trip, has opened the way to a revived JCPOA.
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