TEHRAN (Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says it is most likely that Israel did the Isfahan attack by itself.
“The Biden administration probably does not consider itself to have already implemented a Plan B, but some of its public statements sound almost like giving a green light to Israel to resort to a military attack,” Pillar told Bazaar news agency.
Following is the text of the interview:
Q: Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is going to visit Iran on Thursday. What is your assessment of this trip and what will be his agenda?
A: The prime agenda item clearly will be seeking explanation for the evidence of enrichment to 84%. He presumably will discuss other safeguards-related issues, but the question of uranium enrichment levels will take priority over everything else.
Q: A few days ago, the Bloomberg news agency announced that the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency have identified 84% enriched uranium in Iran. Iran also announced that this is normal in the enrichment process, but Iran has not produced more than 60% enrichment in the final product. What is your assessment?
A: I am not qualified to assess the technical question of exactly what is normal and what is not in enrichment of uranium, but it seems implausible that this was just an accidental consequence of trying to enrich to 60%. More plausible is that Iran decided to increase its bargaining leverage by increasing its enrichment, though not formally declaring that it was doing so, and still stopping short of 90%.
Q: Some argue that Grossi's trip can provide the basis for revitalizing the JCPOA. Considering the prevailing conditions, do you agree with this assessment?
A: Although there are some noises coming out of Iran (but not out of Washington) about the prospect for such revitalization, there still is not evidence that what was preventing the reaching of a new agreement during the last round of negotiations has been overcome. Revitalization of the JCPOA still seems unlikely. The U.S. would consider some lesser agreement (partial freeze of enrichment, in return for partial sanctions relief), but Iran does not seem interested in that option.
Q: Some experts believe that America has already implemented Plan B against Iran and the attack on Isfahan's military industries was probably done with the coordination of America. Do you agree with this view?
Q: In addition to Grossi's trip, indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States regarding the revival of the JCPOA are underway. Iran has announced that it has received a message from America through Iraq, and America has also said that it has not sent any message to Iran. What is your assessment?
A: Private contacts probably are continuing, perhaps through intermediaries such as the Omanis or Qataris as well as the Iraqis. The indirect method gives Washington the basis for denying that any negotiations are taking place.
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