TEHRAN(Bazaar) –Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, tells revival of JCPOA in early 2023 is not likely.
She says: “In 2023, global economic conditions would be even more affected by political problems.”
Following is the text of the interview:
Q: Can we hope for the end of the war in Ukraine in 2023?
A: The end of the Ukraine war will occur when either one side wins a decisive victory or both sides become convinced that neither can win. At the moment, it appears that neither side can win a decisive victory. Much also would depend on how much longer the US and European countries would be willing to continue supporting Ukraine. In turn, their willingness to do so, would partly depend on the mood of their own people, A harsh winter, continued inflation, and economic difficulties could sap public support. However, I believe that the West will continue supporting Ukraine, at least during the first few months of 2023, and wait to see how the situation on the ground evolves.
Q: One of the most important issues in the changing world order is the containment of China by America. Is it possible that the tensions between these two countries will enter an intense phase in 2023? For example, in the issue of Taiwan, will the conflicts enter a more serious phase?
A: I don't foresee an escalation of the crisis between the US and China over Taiwan during 2023. I believe that neither Beijing nor Washington want to be dragged into a costly war. China is facing difficult problems internally and Xi Jinping's authority has been somewhat tarnished. However, for this very reason and, in order to distract people from domestic problems, China might resort to foreign adventures, notably vis a vis Taiwan.
Q: What is the prediction of the global economy in 2023? Will we see the end of the Covid 19 and the growth of the global economy?
A: In 2023, global economic conditions would be even more affected by political problems. An early end to the Ukraine crisis, the elimination of sanctions against Russia, China's success in coping with the upsurge of Covid would positively impact the global economy by reducing inflationary pressures and encouraging growth. By contrast, the persistence of the current crisis and. or the emergence of new ones, especially in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf would adversely affect the world's economy.
Q: What is your prediction of the future of nuclear negotiations with Iran known as JCPOA? Will we see the revival of the JCPOA in 2023?
A: I don't see any likelihood that the ICPOA would be revived early in 2023. Much would depend on how Iran's internal conditions evolve. Continued turmoil and thus worsening of the current government's prospects is likely to lead the US and Europe to wait for a total change in Iran's political structure. However, if the government were to implement fundamental changes in its policies, especially foreign policy, prospects for the revival of the JCPOA would also improve.
Q: In your opinion, what political or economic developments may occur in 2023 that will affect the world?
A: Beyond natural disasters which could adversely affect the world, the continuation of the Ukraine war, a worsening of US-China tensions, developments in the Middle East, could have a negative impact worldwide. By contrast, a resolution of the Ukraine problem, the stabilization of Sino-relations, and improvement in Iran-West relations would have a positive effect globally.
As far as Iran is concerned, developments in the South Caucasus, especially Azerbaijan's growing territorial ambitions, plus the consequences of a hardline government in Israel, need sp-eical attention. Potentially, Iran could be faced with a two fronts conflict.
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