TEHRAN (Bazaar) – Professor Paul Pillar, who was CIA intelligence analyst for 28 years, says the Saudi regime has definitely thrown in its lot with the Republicans (as much as the Israeli government of Netanyahu did).
Pillar told Bazaar news agency that “Mohammed bin Salman clearly was comfortable with his fellow authoritarian Trump.”
Following is the text of the interview:
Q: The decision of OPEC+ to reduce the production of two million barrels has caused disputes between America and Saudi Arabia. How serious are these differences?
A: There are serious differences, which are due not only to issues involving oil production. In recent years, such matters as the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, other human rights violations within Saudi Arabia, and the destructiveness of the Saudi air war against Yemen have all been increasingly seen as problems. The decision on oil production is seen as an additional insult.
Q: How effective is the OPEC+ decision in keeping energy prices high at the global level?
A: For the time being, it will generally be effective in keeping prices high. If a deep global recession were to occur, which is not certain or even likely, prices would be expected to drop. Over the longer term, high prices will encourage faster moves by consuming nations away from fossil fuels and toward alternative energy sources. This latter consideration was why for many years Saudi Arabia--before its financial situation became tight--was usually in favor of maintaining somewhat lower prices than what other OPEC members such as Iran favored, so that there would continue to be a large market for its oil over many years.
Q: It seems that with this decision, Saudi Arabia has this assessment that the Biden government is a one-term administration, and with this action, it also provides the ground for the presence of Republicans in the White House. Do you agree with this assessment?
A: Yes. The Saudi regime has definitely thrown in its lot with the Republicans (as much as the Israeli government of Netanyahu did). Mohammed bin Salman clearly was comfortable with his fellow authoritarian Trump. An additional Saudi motive for the recent decision on cutting oil production was to hurt Joe Biden and the Democrats politically in next month's election by exacerbating inflation in America.
Q: Some American officials talk about revising relations with Saudi Arabia. Are these threats serious or are they basically caused by the diminishing importance of the Persian Gulf in America's national security strategy?
A: There are serious moves among Democrats in Congress to curtail relations with Saudi Arabia, and specifically to reduce sales of arms. These moves will be countered by other voices, including within the Biden administration, that say that despite our frustrations with the Saudis, the US needs to continue a substantial relationship with the kingdom.
Q: According to some reports, the new decision made by OPEC+ to reduce oil production can cause differences in relations between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Can these differences become serious?
A: So far, the emphasis within OPEC+ seems to be one of unity, and stressing that the decision on oil production cuts was one made by all the members, despite the US focus on Saudi Arabia individually. Saudi and UAE interests are parallel on many things but clearly not identical, and whatever differences emerge between the two will be based not just on oil issues but on other matters such as diplomacy within the Persian Gulf region and relations with the United States.
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