TEHRAN(Bazaar) –Shireen Tahmaasb Hunter, a professor of political science at Georgetown University, tells there is only a forty percent chance of the JCPOA's revival.
She says: “Europe is anxious for the revival of the JCPOA and the reentry of Iran's energy into world markets.”
Following is the text of the interview:
Bazaar: The new round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the other side has started in Vienna. What is your assessment of this round of negotiations?
Hunter: It is hard to make an accurate judgement about the current negotiations. My feeling is that this is a last ditch effort to save the agreement. The question is whether both sides would be willing to make the compromises to reach an agreement.
Bazaar: Some argue that the resumption of JCPOA negotiations after a 5-month hiatus could indicate that the informal talks during this period have opened up a space for progress, that all the negotiators have agreed to travel to Vienna and interact face-to-face. What is your assessment?
Hunter: Again, it is difficult to make an accurate judgement. Statements by the US and Iranian officials do not indicate that such progress has been achieved in previous talks, like those in Doha. For example, while some US news sites have reported that Iran has given up on its demand that the IRGC be removed from terror list, Iranian media quotes Iranian officials saying the opposite. Therefore, so far all statements are mere speculation.
Bazaar: According to some unofficial news, the negotiating team between Iran and the United States has made significant progress regarding the payment of compensation to Iran in case the United States withdraws from the JCPOA. Given that one of the important issues has been this issue, how do you evaluate the progress in this field?
Hunter: In view of the current political atmosphere in the US, I find it difficult to believe that Washington would make such a commitment. Moreover, if this news were true, there is no guarantee that a new administration would honor it. The only way Iran could be sure that the US would not withdraw from the agreement again and keep the sanctions regime is to resolve its disputes with the US.
Bazaar: Before the start of negotiations, Europe had presented a draft to exit the deadlock. Is this draft the basis of negotiations?
Hunter: Clearly, Europe is anxious for the revival of the JCPOA and the reentry of Iran's energy into world markets. Borel's efforts should be largely seen in this light. However, ultimately it is Iran and the US who would determine the JCPOA's fate.
Bazaar: What is your prediction for the future of JCPOA?
Hunter: Barring some unexpected breakthrough, I believe that there is only a forty percent chance of the JCPOA's revival.
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