TEHRAN(Bazaar) - Professor Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, Chair of the Center for Iranian Studies at the London Middle East Institute believes the parties should work towards a realistic pre-agreement that would resolve those aspects of the JCPOA where there is agreement.
He adds “In this pre-agreement confidence building measures should be the main signposts along a binding time-line that would deliver a final agreement.”
Here is the full text of the Bazaar's interview with Professor Arshin Adib-Moghaddam.
Bazaar: The resolution of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency was issued against Iran. What is your assessment of this resolution?
Adib-Moghaddam: The JCPOA negotiations are not “objective.” They don’t occur in a vacuum. In fact, they are entirely dependent and determined by international diplomacy and hierarchies of power. The current administration in Iran failed to spearhead a diplomatic effort that would thrust Iran into a strong bargaining position…. President Raisi is a persona-non-grata because of his political biography. On the international scene someone like him is easily defamed and defeated - reputation does play a major role in world affairs, as new research into this by critical IR scholars has clearly demonstrated.
On the other side, the IAEA continues to work under duress, because the Biden administration does not display the will-power of the Obama years, when there was a conscious effort to engage Iran. So, the process is stuck. While none of the governments want to abandon the agreement, they are hesitant to open up a diplomatic atmosphere of dialogue and respect that an agreement of this magnitude requires.
Bazaar: The next session of the Board of Governors is about three months away. According to the current resolution, will the negotiations for the revival of the JCPOA be held before the next meeting of the Board of Governors, and will it be concluded? Given the current trend, how do you assess the future of the JCPOA?
Adib-Moghaddam: I believe that the parties should work towards a realistic pre-agreement that would resolve those aspects of the JCPOA where there is agreement. In this pre-agreement confidence building measures should be the main signposts along a binding time-line that would deliver a final agreement. Again, there doesn’t seem enough diplomatic stamina and imagination in the current Iranian administration to pursue such an effort. The United States and some of the other states know very well about such weaknesses. They had more trouble to defeat all the other Presidents from the 1990s onwards, even President Ahmadinejad. Iran is an incredibly weak bargaining position and this is the outcome of the extremely restrictive political climate in the country.
Bazaar: There is an assessment that the Biden government is in a state of “non-decision” on the JCPOA until the midterm congressional elections in November. Because any agreement with Iran may have negative effects on the results of this election. On the other hand, it is estimated that Iran also believes that we should wait until November to determine Biden's position in the US internal structure and possibly in the next presidential election. Because this election sheds some light on Biden's future. What is your assessment?
Adib-Moghaddam: I think Iran holds the key to these negotiations, but there is no one in the country who can unlock the door. A forceful diplomatic initiative conducted by a strong Iranian administration would override the internal dynamics in the United States. Domestic politics in the US will continue to fluctuate between the policies of the extremist Right and an embattled Democratic Party which will try to hold on to the “centre” in US politics that seems increasingly right-wing. So, there is no reason to wait for a better or worse candidate in the United States. The better times can only come from Iran itself.
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