TEHRAN(Bazaar) –Marc Finaud, Head of Arms Proliferation at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), says Qatar agreed to mediate between the US and Iran about possible parallel confidence-building measures such as prisoners’ release as well as financial aspects of sanctions relief.
He adds that the opponents to the JCPOA have not said their last word and will probably use all available means to create obstacles to its implementation.
Following is the text of the Bazaar interview with Marc Finaud.
Bazaar: Recently, there was news about a change in the US nuclear negotiating team, and “Richard Nephew”, who is known as the designer of US sanctions against Iran, has left the team. Some see this change as a positive signal to Iran. What is your opinion?
Finaud: It is true that there were differences of opinion and strategy within the US negotiating team. Some, like Richard Nephew, considered last December, when the Iranian delegation presented new demands, that the only way to salvage the JCPOA was an interim, less ambitious agreement. The leaders of the team decided, on the contrary, that it would be more effective to aim at a full restoration, implying full sanctions relief against full compliance by Iran. This approach, also adopted by all the other parties, is indeed the best one.
Bazaar: If we assume that these changes are a positive signal to Iran, will the Biden government be able to be safe from the consequences of the attacks of the Republicans and the opponents of the JCPOA? Will there be no action to break the agreement in Congress?
Finuad: Obviously, the opponents to the agreement have not said their last word and will probably use all available means to create obstacles to its implementation. But since the JCPOA is not a legally binding treaty, the US Senate will not have to approve its ratification. Biden will use its own powers to lift all the sanctions that he can lift without consent of Congress.
Bazaar: Iran has recently stated that it is willing to negotiate directly with the United States on nuclear issues if sanctions are lifted. Meanwhile, the United States has already called for direct talks with Iran. Will Iran's action at this stage increase the likelihood of an agreement?
Finaud: Direct talks between the US and Iran were instrumental in facilitating the adoption of the JCPOA in 2015. There are certainly issues in the endgame negotiation that will require some bilateral discussion and bargaining. At this stage, it is difficult to imagine official talks, so they will have to be kept secret until a deal can be announced.
Bazaar: The Qatari Foreign Minister visited Iran and will travel to the United States. Does these trips carry a message about the nuclear deal?
Finaud: Apparently, Qatar agreed to mediate between the US and Iran about possible parallel confidence-building measures such as prisoners’ release as well as financial aspects of sanctions relief.
Bazaar: Meanwhile, Jake Sullivan recently met with Israeli officials to discuss an interim agreement with Iran, and White House Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk said Iran and the United States were on the verge of a possible agreement to return to the JCPOA. And the Biden government is still focused on returning the nuclear deal and has no interest in a “less-for-less” interim deal. What is the reason for the Biden government's focus on the full revival of the JCPOA instead of the interim agreement (Iran had also rejected any interim agreement)?
Finaud: Settling for ‘less for less’ would certainly be in nobody’s interest: Iran would still suffer from sanctions and the international community would still be concerned with some aspects of Iran’s nuclear program. It is not only more effective to aim for full restoration of the JCPOA but also to anticipate the future of the time-bound provisions in the agreement (‘sunset clauses’). This is why this final part of the talks may be challenging.
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